Transportation & Logistics | Q3 2025 | PCE Investment Bankers

Executive Summary

M&A activity in the Transportation & Logistics sector slowed in Q3 2025, with 108 closed transactions (LTM) versus 121 in Q3 2024, reflecting a measured pace amid macroeconomic uncertainty and cost pressures.

Strategic buyers dominated (≈90%), pursuing consolidation and integration to enhance scale and service capabilities.

Valuations eased, with the median TEV/EBITDA at 9.96x and TEV/Revenue at 1.43x, signaling normalization after several years of volatility.

While deal flow softened, investor sentiment remains positive, supported by stable freight demand, infrastructure investment, and long-term supply chain modernization.¹

Market Dynamics

Valuation moderation continued in Q3 2025 as tighter credit conditions and cautious optimism influenced deal pricing. Revenue multiples declined to 1.43x, while EBITDA multiples settled at 9.96x, marking a recalibration following elevated 2024 levels. Buyers focused on assets offering operational resilience, logistics technology integration, and exposure to critical transport corridors—particularly in air freight, rail, and last-mile delivery.

Buyer Landscape

Strategic Acquirers: Strategic buyers accounted for 96 deals (90%), emphasizing network optimization, vertical integration, and multimodal expansion. Notable transactions included Percy Acquisition’s $1.05B purchase of The Wheeling Corporation and Menzies Aviation’s $315M acquisition of G2 Secure Staff, underscoring global operators’ push for scale and service diversification.¹

Financial Buyers: Financial sponsors represented just over 10% of transactions, maintaining a selective approach focused on niche transport and logistics service providers. Key activity included CVC DIF’s investment in American Student Transportation Partners and Providence Equity Partners’ acquisition of Global Critical Logistics, reflecting continued interest in contracted and asset-light transportation platforms.¹

Industry Comparison

The Transportation & Logistics sector underperformed relative to high-growth industries such as technology and healthcare. However, it outpaced cyclical sectors such as retail, automotive, and basic manufacturing, which saw less activity because of margin compression and higher borrowing costs. Global deal volume is projected to decline modestly (~5% YoY) in 2025, constrained by financing costs and capacity normalization.

Geographic Expansion

Top U.S. States: Deal activity remained concentrated in key logistics and freight hubs. Texas led with 13 transactions, followed by California (9) and New York (8), reflecting robust industrial infrastructure and distribution capacity.¹

Cross-Border Trends: Cross-border activity was modest but strategically significant, highlighted by Menzies Aviation’s $315M acquisition of G2 Secure Staff, reinforcing global operators’ efforts to expand U.S. airport and ground service networks. International buyers remain attracted to U.S. logistics assets offering operational efficiency and market access.

Notable Transactions

Largest Transactions Closed

Other Strategic Buyer Transactions Closed

Other Strategic Buyer Transactions Closed

Emerging Trends

Key trends shaping Transportation and Logistics M&A:

1. Persistent Driver Shortage
   The U.S. trucking industry continues to face a critical shortage of over 80,000 drivers, exacerbated by an aging workforce and insufficient new entrants. This gap is leading to increased shipping costs and delays, highlighting the urgency for workforce development and retention strategies.³
2. Surge in Cross-Border Trade
   Nearshoring trends are driving a significant increase in U.S.–Mexico trade, which reached $74 billion in May 2025, a 2.6% rise from the previous year. This growth is attributed to companies like BMW and Volvo ramping up production in Mexico, necessitating enhanced cross-border logistics solutions.⁴
3. Advancements in Autonomous Freight Technology
   Aurora Innovation has commenced fully autonomous freight operations on public highways in Texas, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology. These Class 8 trucks are making commercial deliveries between Dallas and Houston, aiming to address driver shortages and improve efficiency.²
4. Expansion of Drone Delivery Services
   Uber Eats is set to launch drone-based meal delivery in the U.S. through a new partnership with Flytrex Inc., with test markets expected to launch by the end of 2025. This collaboration marks Uber’s expansion into autonomous aerial delivery, aligning with a broader industry trend that includes competitors like DoorDash, Walmart, and Amazon.⁸
5. Subsector Spotlight: Resilience Amid Global Trade Tensions
   Despite new tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, U.S. ports have maintained high volumes and improved operational efficiency. Companies are responding by diversifying supply sources and accelerating planning cycles to manage rising logistics costs, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating demand.⁶
6. Subsector Spotlight: Capacity Tightening and Rate Fluctuations
   The U.S. truckload market is experiencing tightening capacity, with spot load volumes increasing nearly 20% year-over-year, while spot truck posts declined 30%, signaling tightening supply. Class 8 tractor orders plunged over 40%, and elevated cost inflation continues to drive exits among smaller carriers, putting pressure on fleet capacity heading into peak season.⁷

Outlook for Next Quarter

Opportunities: Continued growth in e-commerce and adoption of digital technologies is expected to drive activity in the logistics sector. For instance, net employment in the sector grew 26% in Q3 2025, reflecting increased demand for digital logistics solutions and operational expansion.⁵

Risks: Economic uncertainties, including interest rate fluctuations and regulatory changes, may impact logistics operations and investment momentum. Additionally, rising diesel prices, up 7% year-to-date, could increase operational costs for carriers and freight operators.⁵

Predicted Activity: Strategic acquisitions focused on technological capabilities, service expansion, and infrastructure improvements are anticipated to remain prominent. Companies such as Prologis and Radiant Logistics are pursuing acquisitions to enhance operational efficiency and strengthen market position.⁵

PCE Transactions

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