Valuation demand held firm into Q3 2025: LTM median TEV/EBITDA = 9.52x and LTM median TEV/Revenue = 1.55x on 1,143 LTM transactions, reflecting persistent competition for branded, digital-native, and wellness-focused assets amid resilient consumer spending. Retail demand stayed robust on premiumization and experiential trends, while consumer products benefited from health-conscious shifts (e.g., BFY foods, D2C platforms) and easing inflation (down to ~2.7% mid-year). The period’s largest announced/closed transactions included DICK'S Sporting Goods' $5.3B acquisition of Foot Locker, OpenAI's $5.0B purchase of io Products, Apollo's $2.2B buy of Everi Holdings, and Flutter's $1.6B deal for FanDuel—each underscoring buyers’ tilt toward scalable brands, tech integrations, and entertainment ecosystems.1
Deals: 231 in Q3; LTM 1,143 (vs. 1,345 a year ago). Valuations: LTM medians 9.52× EBITDA / 1.55× revenue. Strategics leaned into omnichannel integrations (retail media, last-mile efficiency) and luxury consolidations, and financial sponsors favored brand management roll-ups with licensing economics. E-commerce remained thematically relevant, with AI-led discovery gaining traction, though diligence increasingly weighs tariff risks and cost pass-throughs [2
Strategic Acquirers: Strategic purchasers accounted for 75.2% of the LTM deals (859 of 1,143), solidifying their position as key integrators in the Consumer & Retail space. Momentum persisted in labeled merchandise, accommodations, and client-focused offerings with elevated lifetime worth.1
Financial Buyers: Financial sponsors made up 12.3% of LTM deals (141 of 1,143), prioritizing expandable, revenue-stable enterprises.1
Despite a lower LTM count vs. 2024, consumer & retail valuation medians outpaced broader goods cohorts, supported by resilient premiumization, D2C loyalty, and experiential demand. Mid-year credit and industry outlooks highlight easing rate headwinds and stabilizing inflation supportive for deal underwriting, though tariff risks and labor shortages still elongate integration timelines.4
Top U.S. States: California topped states with 114 deals, trailed by Florida (96) and Texas (89), underscoring ongoing M&A clustering in primary buyer hubs.1
Cross-Border Trends: Targets in the U.S. drew robust overseas attention, with significant international buys demonstrating worldwide desire for proven American buyer brands and holdings.1
| Target | Buyer | Value |
| Foot Locker, Inc. | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $5,277.17 |
| io Products, Inc. | OpenAI, L.L.C. | $5,000.00 |
| Everi Holdings Inc. | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $2,234.29 |
| FanDuel Inc. | Flutter Entertainment plc | $1,550.00 |
| Family Dollar Stores, LLC | Brigade Capital Management, LP; Macellum Management, LP |
$1,007.50 |
| Curtis Instruments, Inc. | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $1,000.00 |
| Sizzling Platter, LLC | Bain Capital, LP | $1,000.00 |
| CWT US, LLC | Global Business Travel Group, Inc. | $540.00 |
| Town Center Plaza and Crossing | Federal Realty Investment Trust | $289.00 |
| Marriott Seattle Waterfront | Seafront Fjord Owner, LLC | $145.02 |
| Target | Buyer | Value |
| Washington Marriott at Metro Center | T2 Hospitality, LLC | $127.99 |
| Nine Orchard | MML Hospitality | $92.00 |
| Chairish, Inc. | Auction Technology Group plc | $85.00 |
| El Encanto Hotel And Garden Villas | Culver Capital Group, Inc. | $82.20 |
| LBMP, LLC | Swickard Auto Group | $70.00 |
| Target | Buyer | Value |
| The Westin Tampa Waterside | Rockpoint Group, L.L.C.; Newbond Holdings | $95.00 |
| Highland Light Steam Laundry, Inc. | Surge Private Equity LLC | $50.00 |
| Hotel Five in Belltown | DVP 2200 5 LLC | $25.50 |
| Aloft Nashville West End | Somera Capital Management, LLC | $25.00 |
| Oasis Hotel Waikiki | Eagle Point Hotel Partners LLC | $23.00 |
Source S&P Capital IQ as of 10/2/2025 and PCE Proprietary Data
Opportunities: Easing monetary policy and resilient consumer spending in select areas will drive investments in AI innovations, digital infrastructure, and sustainable brands, unlocking growth in e-commerce and wellness.4
Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and slowing GDP growth could strain margins, delay executions, and heighten scrutiny in cross-border deals.4
Predicted Activity: Expect a flurry of megadeals, PE exits via carve-outs, and strategic portfolio refinements, with activity concentrating in AI-fueled and resilient subsectors like retail media.3
Joe Anto |
Eric Zaleski |
Kyle Wishing |
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Data Assumptions This report represents transaction activity as mergers & acquisitions, consolidations, restructurings and spin-offs. Targets are defined as U.S. Based companies with either foreign or U.S. based buyers. Transaction information provided is based on closed dates only. Glossary EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes Sources:
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