Industry Trends
Largest Transactions Closed
- Target
- Buyer
- Value($mm)
Advised Western Milling in their sale to the Western Milling ESOP Trust
Executive Summary
Valuation demand held firm into Q3 2025: LTM median TEV/EBITDA = 9.52x and LTM median TEV/Revenue = 1.55x on 1,143 LTM transactions, reflecting persistent competition for branded, digital-native, and wellness-focused assets amid resilient consumer spending. Retail demand stayed robust on premiumization and experiential trends, while consumer products benefited from health-conscious shifts (e.g., BFY foods, D2C platforms) and easing inflation (down to ~2.7% mid-year). The period’s largest announced/closed transactions included DICK'S Sporting Goods' $5.3B acquisition of Foot Locker, OpenAI's $5.0B purchase of io Products, Apollo's $2.2B buy of Everi Holdings, and Flutter's $1.6B deal for FanDuel—each underscoring buyers’ tilt toward scalable brands, tech integrations, and entertainment ecosystems.1
Market Dynamics
Deals: 231 in Q3; LTM 1,143 (vs. 1,345 a year ago). Valuations: LTM medians 9.52× EBITDA / 1.55× revenue. Strategics leaned into omnichannel integrations (retail media, last-mile efficiency) and luxury consolidations, and financial sponsors favored brand management roll-ups with licensing economics. E-commerce remained thematically relevant, with AI-led discovery gaining traction, though diligence increasingly weighs tariff risks and cost pass-throughs [2
Buyer Landscape
Strategic Acquirers: Strategic purchasers accounted for 75.2% of the LTM deals (859 of 1,143), solidifying their position as key integrators in the Consumer & Retail space. Momentum persisted in labeled merchandise, accommodations, and client-focused offerings with elevated lifetime worth.1
Financial Buyers: Financial sponsors made up 12.3% of LTM deals (141 of 1,143), prioritizing expandable, revenue-stable enterprises.1
Industry Comparison
Despite a lower LTM count vs. 2024, consumer & retail valuation medians outpaced broader goods cohorts, supported by resilient premiumization, D2C loyalty, and experiential demand. Mid-year credit and industry outlooks highlight easing rate headwinds and stabilizing inflation supportive for deal underwriting, though tariff risks and labor shortages still elongate integration timelines.4
Geographic Expansion
Top U.S. States: California topped states with 114 deals, trailed by Florida (96) and Texas (89), underscoring ongoing M&A clustering in primary buyer hubs.1
Cross-Border Trends: Targets in the U.S. drew robust overseas attention, with significant international buys demonstrating worldwide desire for proven American buyer brands and holdings.1
Notable Transactions
Largest Transactions Closed
| Target | Buyer | Value |
| Foot Locker, Inc. | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $5,277.17 |
| io Products, Inc. | OpenAI, L.L.C. | $5,000.00 |
| Everi Holdings Inc. | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $2,234.29 |
| FanDuel Inc. | Flutter Entertainment plc | $1,550.00 |
| Family Dollar Stores, LLC | Brigade Capital Management, LP; Macellum Management, LP |
$1,007.50 |
| Curtis Instruments, Inc. | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $1,000.00 |
| Sizzling Platter, LLC | Bain Capital, LP | $1,000.00 |
| CWT US, LLC | Global Business Travel Group, Inc. | $540.00 |
| Town Center Plaza and Crossing | Federal Realty Investment Trust | $289.00 |
| Marriott Seattle Waterfront | Seafront Fjord Owner, LLC | $145.02 |
Other Strategic Buyer Transactions Closed
| Target | Buyer | Value |
| Washington Marriott at Metro Center | T2 Hospitality, LLC | $127.99 |
| Nine Orchard | MML Hospitality | $92.00 |
| Chairish, Inc. | Auction Technology Group plc | $85.00 |
| El Encanto Hotel And Garden Villas | Culver Capital Group, Inc. | $82.20 |
| LBMP, LLC | Swickard Auto Group | $70.00 |
Other Financial Buyer Transactions Closed
| Target | Buyer | Value |
| The Westin Tampa Waterside | Rockpoint Group, L.L.C.; Newbond Holdings | $95.00 |
| Highland Light Steam Laundry, Inc. | Surge Private Equity LLC | $50.00 |
| Hotel Five in Belltown | DVP 2200 5 LLC | $25.50 |
| Aloft Nashville West End | Somera Capital Management, LLC | $25.00 |
| Oasis Hotel Waikiki | Eagle Point Hotel Partners LLC | $23.00 |
Source S&P Capital IQ as of 10/2/2025 and PCE Proprietary Data
Emerging Trends
Key trends shaping Consumer and Retail M&A:
- Shift to Fewer, Larger Deals
Deal volume declined while values surged, with buyers prioritizing high conviction, megadeals for scale and strategic synergies amid economic caution. This reflects a focus on transformative transactions over smaller ones.5 - AI & Tech-Enabled Capabilities
Retailers accelerated acquisitions in AI-driven shopping assistants, data monetization, and omnichannel tech to boost discovery, efficiency, and retail media networks.2 - Tariff and Trade Resilience Focus
Heightened trade frictions prompted deals emphasizing nearshoring, regional consolidations, and supply chain optimizations to mitigate tariff impacts on imports.3 - Subsector Spotlight: Specialty Retail
Momentum in athletic and discount channels through consolidations for market share and efficiency, exemplified by DICK’S Sporting Goods’ Foot Locker acquisition and Family Dollar’s divestiture to Brigade Capital.1 - Subsector Spotlight: Food & Beverage
Expansion into wellness and "better-for-you" segments via bolt-ons, with PE targeting scalable QSR platforms like Sizzling Platter to capture health trends.2
Outlook for Next Quarter
Opportunities: Easing monetary policy and resilient consumer spending in select areas will drive investments in AI innovations, digital infrastructure, and sustainable brands, unlocking growth in e-commerce and wellness.4
Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and slowing GDP growth could strain margins, delay executions, and heighten scrutiny in cross-border deals.4
Predicted Activity: Expect a flurry of megadeals, PE exits via carve-outs, and strategic portfolio refinements, with activity concentrating in AI-fueled and resilient subsectors like retail media.3
PCE Transactions
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