Transportation & Logistics Q4 2025

Executive Summary

M&A activity in the Transportation & Logistics sector continued to soften in Q4 2025, with 102 closed transactions (LTM) versus 118 in Q4 2024, reflecting ongoing caution amid macro uncertainty and elevated financing costs. “Even as transaction volume softened, buyers demonstrated a willingness to pay up for differentiated logistics platforms with strong margins, technology enablement, and network relevance,” noted Michael Rosendahl, Managing Director at PCE. Strategic buyers remained dominant (~83%), driving consolidation to expand scale and optimize service networks.

Valuations surged, with median TEV/EBITDA climbing to 13.07x and TEV/Revenue easing to 1.32x – signaling selective premium pricing for high-quality assets despite muted volume. Investor sentiment holds steady, supported by resilient freight demand, infrastructure investment, and accelerating adoption of logistics technology. ¹

Market Dynamics

Valuation trends reversed in Q4 2025, with EBITDA multiples spiking to 13.07x from 9.20x a year ago, while revenue multiples edged down to 1.32x. This divergence underscores buyer appetite for margin-rich, tech-enabled operators over pure top-line growth.

Deal flow concentrated on targets offering operational resilience, advanced fulfillment capabilities, and exposure to high-demand corridors – particularly last-mile delivery and integrated freight solutions. Strategic acquirers prioritized synergistic tuck-ins, while financial sponsors selectively pursued niche platforms amid tighter credit conditions.

Buyer Landscape

Strategic Acquirers: Strategic buyers accounted for 83% of transactions (85 deals), continuing to prioritize network optimization, vertical integration, and multimodal expansion. Notable Q4 transactions included Rubicon Technology’s $46M acquisition of Janel Group and Enterprise Holdings’ purchase of Hogan Truck Leasing, underscoring the focus on scale and service diversification.¹

Financial Buyers: Financial sponsors represented 17% of transactions (17 deals), maintaining a selective approach toward niche transport and logistics platforms. Key activity included Copley Equity Partners’ investment in Vital Delivery Solutions and McNally Capital’s acquisition of Airforce Turbine Service, reflecting sustained interest in asset-light and specialized service providers.¹

Industry Comparison

The Transportation & Logistics sector underperformed relative to high-growth industries such as technology and healthcare but outpaced cyclical sectors like retail, automotive, and basic manufacturing, which faced margin compression and elevated borrowing costs. Global deal volume for transportation and logistics is projected to decline more sharply than previously expected, down ~8–10% YoY in 2025, driven by higher financing costs, capacity normalization, and cautious capital deployment. Despite these headwinds, strategic buyers remain active in niche segments such as last-mile delivery, aviation services, and cross-border freight, signaling selective consolidation opportunities as operators seek scale and operational efficiency.

Geographic Expansion

Top U.S. States: Deal activity remained concentrated in major logistics hubs. Texas led with 15 transactions, followed by New York (8) as well as California, Georgia, Florida, and Illinois that each have 6, highlighting strong industrial infrastructure and distribution capacity in these regions.¹

Cross-Border Trends: Cross-border activity was modest but strategically relevant, with international buyers continuing to target U.S. logistics assets for operational efficiency and market access. While disclosed values were limited, transactions such as Rubicon Technology’s acquisition of Janel Group illustrate global operators’ interest in expanding U.S. freight and fulfillment capabilities.

Notable Transactions

Largest Transactions Closed

Other Financial Buyer Transactions Closed

Other Strategic Buyer Transactions Closed

Emerging Trends

Key trends shaping Transportation and Logistics M&A:

1. Transportation Unemployment Stabilization but Mode-Specific Variance
   Latest U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics data indicates the transportation sector unemployment rate held at 4.8 % in November 2025, unchanged from 2024, with trucking employment slightly down and air transport up – evidence of mixed labor market dynamics.⁵
2. Aviation Supply Chain Cost Pressures
   Airlines faced more than $11 billion in supply chain disruption costs in 2025, driven by maintenance delays, fuel inefficiencies, and parts shortages – a significant drag on margins that will be reflected in cautious approaches from strategic acquirers, which may influence strategic M&A or consolidation.³
3. Logistics Activity Moderation
   The U.S. Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) fell to 57.4 in September 2025, the lowest in six months, indicating slower growth across transportation, inventory, and warehousing amid economic uncertainty. Continued LMI above expansion threshold suggests activity remains positive but decelerating.⁸
4. Cross‑Border Trucking Pressure & Moderate Output Growth
   Broader transport/logistics forecasts show U.S. land transport (trucking) output expected to grow only ~0.3 % in 2026 after modest increases in 2025, reflecting weaker cross‑border activity with Canada/Mexico and tariff‑related volume impacts. Air transport is forecast to grow ~1.6 % in 2026, supported by e‑commerce freight demand.⁴
5. Subsector Spotlight: Trucking & Logistics Capacity Tightening
   After extended contraction through 2025, industry forecasts show the U.S. trucking market rebalancing with gradual capacity tightening and soft freight volumes, shaping pricing dynamics and strategic deals in freight and asset transactions.²
6. Subsector Spotlight: Aviation Operational and Cost Pressures
   Grounded cargo fleets and supply chain cost inflation are impacting major carriers such as FedEx, reducing near-term profitability and potentially accelerating strategic partnerships or divestitures in air logistics segments.⁷

Outlook for Next Quarter

Opportunities: As capacity tightens and freight demand recovers unevenly, strategic acquirers may pursue deals that add operational scale, digital capabilities, and labor-effective platforms (e.g., 3PL/4PL tech), positioning them for market share gains.⁶

Risks: Labor market variability and policy pressures (e.g., commercial driver license enforcement, tariff-related cost increases) could compress margins for labor-intensive models, complicating integration and bid valuation in M&A deals.⁶

Predicted Activity: Transportation and logistics M&A is expected to emphasize technology adoption (automation, digital freight platforms) and modal consolidation (e.g., rail-trucking service offerings), as firms seek efficiencies amid cost and capacity challenges.⁶

PCE Transactions

Served as advisor to Nussbaum Transportation Services on their sale of an interest to the Nussbaum ESOP Trust

Served as advisor to SDR Trucking on their sale to SDR Transportation Holdings ESOP Trust

Served as advisor to Hendry Marine Industries, Inc. on their sale of an interest to the Hendry Marine Industries ESOP Trust

Served as advisor to Ralph's Transfer on their sale to Riverstone Logistics

Served as advisor to United Source One on a fairness opinion and sale to an ESOP

Served as advisor to Next-Port, Inc. on their merger with Merchants Market Group

Contact Us

Michael Rosendahl New York Office 201-444-6280 | Email me now READ MORE →

Eric Zaleski Chicago Office 847-239-2466 | Email me now READ MORE →

Kyle Wishing Atlanta Office 404-994-4186 | Email me now READ MORE →